New Clear Thinking Power Before Nuclear Power

Indonesian studies scholars rarely attempt to shed light on how technology is particularly suited to serve the political interests of those who seek to control other groups or to establish a political order maintaining the status quo.
Sulfikar Amir: The State and the Reactor: Nuclear Politics in Post-Suharto Indonesia (2010)

Back in March, the spokesman of the Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) Ferhat Aziz stated that Batan has sufficient human resources to support the development of a nuclear power plant.

That leads to the question of how he defines 'human resources' because he then went on to say that "the project would not go ahead anytime soon because there were so many factors to take into consideation - such as the environment, climate, geology and geography and including finding a location not prone to tsunamis, volcanic eruptions or earthquakes."

Presumably there are no environmentalists, climatologists, geologists or map readers on the BATAN staff, thus putting the lie to his initial statement. There's also the small matter of not having enough plumbers. In researching his paper Sulfikar Amir used the toilets a few times at the BATAN head office in Jakarta, and observed that "the toilet was not as clean as those found in five-star hotels, and the sink was leaking."

The same could be said about my house, but I'm not planning to develop a nuclear power plant any time soon. There also can't be anyone with sufficient knowledge to maintain a website either because the  BATAN Radioactive Waste Technology Center webpage has been "down for maintenance" for at least four years.

Most of us presume that the official spokesperson of whatever organisation or person is authorised to inform the public, via the media, of the 'official line'. However, BATAN is far from transparent in its dealings.

On Tuesday 4th July, BATAN head Hudi Hastowo told reporters that Bangka Belitung was considered to be the most suitable site for a nuclear power plant, due to geological and geographical reasons - there's a granite sub-strata and the sea is relatively shallow so tsunamis are unlikely.

He then went on to say, as quoted in the Post, that Batan finished feasibility and site studies in Bangka Belitung in January and had planned to announce the results of the bidding to build the power plant in March. However, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster on March 11 created political and social situations that were inconvenient for announcing the results.

Thanks for the honesty, Pak Hudi, but authorising Ferhat Aziz to cloud the issue is a strong indication that your organisation is not to be trusted.

In his very readable paper, Pak Amir analyses how in post-colonial Indonesia the "interplay between politics and technology continued to influence Indonesian politics in the postcolonial era, where the role of technology became more pivotal as it contributed to the construction of ideology and nation-building processes."

B.J. Habibie Ph.D, who holds some 46 patents, is the obvious example of this. In 1974, having returned from his studies and work as an aeronautical engineer in Germany, he was made CEO of state-owned enterprise PT. Industri Pesawat Terbang Nurtanio (IPTN) in Bandung, named after an early Indonesian aviation pioneer.

In 1985 the 'N' was replaced with 'Nusantara' (Archipelago). Following the Asian economic crisis (krismon), in 2000 the company was restructured and renamed PT. Dirgantara Indonesia (Indonesian Aerospace Inc.)

In that year, B.J. Habibie was already an ex-President.

And just this month (July 2011), the government has said that it will inject Rp.2 trillion ($234 million) to Indonesian Aerospace to keep the debt-ridden firm afloat. This is in addition to its unpaid debt to the government of.1.1 trillion ($129 million).

But that's peanuts compared to the cost of building and maintaining a nuclear power plant, cost that must ultimately be borne by the state. The upfront capital investment required to build a 1400 MW plant in the USA is currently about $2 billion.

Quoted in the Post in early July, Bangka Belitung Governor Eko Maulana Ali said: "To build a 1-gigawatt (=1000MW) power plant, we need approximately 35 trillion rupiah (US$4 billion). As we are planning to build two power plants in the Muntok and Permis areas, 70 trillion rupiah is needed. The government is not concerned on the cost as many foreign investors are ready to support the project."

But in his press conference, Hudi Hastowo said that to supply 2 percent of the electricity demand Indonesia would need to construct four nuclear power plants with a capacity of 4,000 MW. Where would the other two be sited? Presumably Governor Eko is talking up a higher budget because of expected inflation and the usual over-run costs.

As for the foreign investors, among others, interest has been shown in the past few years by Korea's state-run, Hydro & Nuclear Power Co, Mitsubishi of Japan and Russia's electricity company Raoues.

The latter is interesting in that in 2006 Gorontalo Governor Fadel Muhamad - now the Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries - had a wizard scheme to overcome Indonesia's energy crisis. He announced a deal with them to build Indonesia's first nuclear power plant on a ship floating off the shore of Gorontalo.

There are a number of other factors which no-one seems keen to talk about.

Apart from the need to recruit highly qualified and trained qualified staff, presumably from abroad as there are none in Indonesia, there is the small matter of the fuel, uranium.

There is doubt about the amount of reserves In Indonesia. It is estimated that there are 29,000 tons in West Kalimantan and 24,000 tons in Bangka Belitung. Each 1000MW power plant would require 200 tons per annum, which would mean that if, and it's a big IF, all the reserves were extracted, purified and transported to the four power plants, they would be able to operate for c.36 years, some ten years shorter than the planned 'life expectancy' of most nuclear plants. For further plants to come onstream, uranium would have to be imported, yet it is estimated that world reserves would only last for 44 years for the c.436 plants currently in operation worldwide.

So, the outlook for the nuclear industry is limited. And then must be added the costs of decommissioning as well as the yet to be resolved problem of the radioactive waste which will remain lethal for 100,000 years, some 80,000 years longer than homo sapiens have been around. And all because of the 'need' to preserve a short-term political status quo? Or brown envelopes?

....................................................................  
Originally published in the Jakarta Post 8th August 2011 I'm posting this now because yet another article has appeared in the Post in which more BADAN "experts" suggest that nuclear plants are needed NOW. I will be submitting another riposte to the Post.