Nuclear Power Industry Needs Experts ....

... who can google.

Earlier this year, in August, The Jakarta Post published an article of mine entitled 'New clear thinking before nuclear power.' Unfortunately, it would appear that no-one in BATAN (Indonesia's Nuclear Energy Agency) read it.

If they had, then Tri Murni Soedyartomo, a senior researcher at BATAN, would not, as reported in the Post on 12th November (Nuclear power needed before 2025, warn experts), have stated that "as fossil fuels could run out in 15 to 20 years’ time, Indonesia should build nuclear power plants."

It's too easy, glib even, to list the many failures of other experts to build adequate infrastructure or to prevent (and thereby cause) major catastrophes. The root cause is generally the failure to consider consequences. For example, the recent flood in Pondok Labu, East Jakarta, was caused by the narrowing of the River Krukut from six meters to two. In the immortal word of Homer Simpson, "Doh."

Another reason for these failures is the lack of reasoning, of not following President SBY's dictum at the beginning of 2008 to "Think Outside The Box". Mind you, some have suggested to me that the greatest failing is in actually think inside the box.

With minimal googling, Ibu Murni could have discovered that it is an illusion to build new nuclear power plants in the short time she suggests. The time frame needed for formalities, planning and building of a new nuclear power generation plant in the western democracies is in the range of 20 to 30 years. In other words, with the best will in the world, it would be impossible to have a nuclear power plant online before 2031, six years after her supposed deadline.

That Indonesia would need ten such power plants to meet the shortfall in generated electricity indicates a much longer time frame, and therein lies another major problem. The current estimate of the reserves of the fuel needed for nuclear power plants, uranium, are only sufficient for forty years at the current rate of 'consumption. By the time that Indonesia's hypothetical plants come onstream, uranium will have gone the way of fossil fuels.

So, what are the alternatives?Markus Wauran, a researcher from the Indonesia Nuclear Society (HIMNI), was in agreement with Ibu Murni, saying that Indonesia was prone to an energy crisis due to the country’s declining fossil fuel reserves. There are few who would disagree with his statement that: “We should consider building power plants to utilize other energy sources."

However, he then suggested that alternatives such as geothermal energy and wind power needed to be built "on a massive scale” and that "solar power plants could prove to be costly as one megawatt of energy would require building one hectare of solar cells."

This is bullshit.

Because of declining equipment costs, the spot price of solar panels has dropped about 40 percent this year, and it is suggested that the price could drop still further to match that of coal-fired plants within ten years. This is a great incentive to not go down the nuclear path, vide India which expects to have installed a solar power capacity of 20,000 megawatts, equivalent to about 18 nuclear reactors, by 2022.

But why should "massive" power plants be built in the first place? These are intended to supply large populations and if the intent is to supply the estimated 30% of Indonesia's population not connected to the national grid, mostly because they live in isolated villages, then an expansion of the transmission line network would be needed. Estimates, which require a knowledge of physics I admit is beyond me, indicate that about 10% is lost over long distances.

All power plants should therefore be sited to serve local needs. To serve the needs of the nigh on 13 million inhabitants and commuters of Jakarta, an ever-growing number, this could mean that a power plant should be built in Jakarta's 'Golden Triangle', rather than, say, Bangka in Sumatra. As suggested by former President Habibie, and former Minister of Research and Technology, at a conference on renewable energy in February 2010, Bali and Lombok could be served by the utilization of the kinetic force of ocean currents in the Lombok Strait,

Away from such major population centers, however, there is surely no need to build power plants with the capacity to generate many megawatts of electricity when kilowatts are sufficient to power lights, TVs and to charge hand phones.

A number of small scale projects have been successfully developed throughout Indonesia.

• Nusantara Development Initiatives (NDI) sponsors Project Light which aims to “bring light to lives” by introducing environmentally-friendly solar-powered lamps to villages with scarce electricity in Indonesia.

• Hitachi High-Tech of Japan has completed testing of a combined solar power generation and water purification system in the village of Bekkae in South Sulawesi.


• PALAPA is a program initiated by students from the Bandung Institute of Technology which aims to build energy independent villages that take advantage of the renewable energy source, primarily solar and hydro, available locally, and turn it into economic activities to help support the welfare of the villages.

There are undoubtedly many more projects to emulate, some sponsored by state electricity company, PLN, who have agreed to increase fees paid for power produced from biomass, biogas and city waste. This is good as they obviously don't have much of a clue about nuclear power.

It has been widely reported that State Enterprises Minister Dahlan Iskan, a former PLN managing director, has approved the construction of a 200-kilowatt nuclear plant starting this year. I figure that would be enough for our fairly short street for a day.

Whatever, we can also put off the need for capital intensive power plants by reducing our collective demand for electricity. In pre-reformasi times we were regularly extolled to Hemat Energi, Hemat Biaya - Save Energy, Save Costs.

If we can remember that mantra, and obey it, then we can hopefully forget the pipedreams of BATAN and PLN.

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Footnote

With French Greenpeace activists today breaching the security of nuclear plants this week, continued worry about the long-term effects of the tsunami-hit Fukushima plant in Japan, which until yesterday was leaking radioactive water into the Pacific and has yet to decide how to safely dispose of 30 million tons of radioactive soil, it's surely nonsensical for Indonesia, which can't keep bridges standing for more than ten years, to even contemplate keeping a nuclear power plant safe for long.